Source: Gartner Group

Technology Adoption is Not Linear

Bill Gates once noted, “we overestimate changes in the next two years and underestimate changes in the next ten.” The root of that phenomenon is well-documented in books like “Innovators Dilemma” and “Crossing the Chasm” and visually represented in the Gartner Group’s “Technology Hype Cycle” (graphic above).

This article argues that, In market-driven industries, irrational behavior by market players is essential for systemic progress. Navigating the hype cycle as a technologist over the past 30 years has shown to me that understanding it can significantly increase entrepreneurs and corporate innovators’ chances of success.

What is the Hype Cycle?

The initial Technology Trigger stage generates excitement about the transformational potential, escalating into the Peak of Inflated Expectations, characterized by a surge in media and public interest. When reality falls short, a Trough of Disillusionment ensues. That is when technology stocks crash, investments are discontinued and technology startups die. The world moves on to hype something else.

Successful technologies and persistent solution builders navigate the Slope of Enlightenment, when the technology matures and its value is demonstrated, to reach the Plateau of Productivity, with widespread adoption and integration of the technology into various industries and applications.

That cycle is observed every time, usually over a period of 2-10 years for any horizontal technology with broad societal implications.

Why can’t we learn from the past?

If the hype cycle is real, wouldn’t it be more efficient for the industry to make rational infrastructure investments, gradually take the technology to maturity, validate its use cases, build the right last-mile solutions, and deliver value to users without the extremes of optimism and pessimism, the disruptive misallocation of resources, and the projection of unrealistic expectations?

Consider the Internet (peak 1999), 5G (peak 2021), and Blockchain (peak 2021). The massive upfront investments in infrastructure (data centers, cell towers, radios embedded in consumer devices) cannot realistically be made on business cases with short-term ROI metrics which is the norm in large capital-rich enterprises. So, we need irrational expectations and unrealistic optimism to justify them and put smart people to take the technology to maturity over time.

As of late 2024, with a peak of inflated expectations, large tech companies are spending billions of dollars on GPUs and data centers to let innovative solution developers play with the nascent technology of Large Language Models. The real transformational solutions will come in the next several years, after we go through the Through of Disillusionment.

Takeaways for Entrepreneurs, Product Managers, Corporate Technologists and Decision-Makers

In conclusion, here are some of the takeaways:

• The hype cycle is necessary – The long period needed to take a broadly impactful technology to maturity is not compatible with decision making process within capital-rich companies. The hype cycle (unrealistic expectations, irrational optimism) is the mechanism to justify and fund building the infrastructure. That is how capitalism works.
• The entities making investments and the ones realizing the returns on the investment are not necessarily the same – While some companies have long-term strategies and the understanding to sustain long-term investments, the hype cycle causes funding bubbles, often making individual investors and companies collateral victims in the process and enabling new (and different) market winners in the future.
• Timing is important – Understand your and your company’s role in the industry. If you are building infrastructure for the long term, sure, jump in early and embrace the hype. If you intend to deliver last-mile solutions, understand that neither the technology nor the market is ready early in the cycle. Get the funding while investors are behaving irrationally and make sure you have the runway to navigate the disillusionment stage, or wait until the technology and users are ready for broad adoption.
• The hype cycle can be transposed into a smaller scope – You can use a similar model to understand the adoption of new products and technology within a company customer base. Creating an inspiring vision requires (sometimes unreasonable) optimism. Complex projects will go through challenges and having the vision and persistence to overcome them is easier and defendable if you and others around you understand the adoption cycle. Making sure customers and markets are ready to adopt a new product/service/technology by the time you launch it is key to success. For more on that, see thought leadership article.

Call to Action

If you are a Product Manager or Entrepreneur developing LLM solutions, make sure you understand where the technology is today. The hype over AI is useful to get funding and can get you started earlier. But assuming that the technology can deliver today and users are ready to interact with a robot beyond basics language tasks and novelty is just unrealistic.

The same applies to any other technology product. Think about the concept of the Hype Cycle and use it to set optimistic visions, to manage technology and adoption challenges and protect the project, maintain a steady execution, and deliver products when customers are ready for it.

If this article was thought provoking to you, help to get it to your peers. Thank you.

About the Author

As a product/technology manager across different technology companies in different markets, I have successfully used the concept of hype cycle for 25+ years to manage the funding, timing, and expectations of product and solution development and delivery within the organization. The hype cycle is a useful framework to articulate product roadmaps and technology strategy. I engage with technology companies as a consultant and love to share those lessons with others.

Company Culture

At its core, company culture is a reflection of an organization’s mission, vision, and values. It is the shared understanding of what the company stands for and how it operates.

When well-established, culture drives how people think and act under pressure when the boss is not watching. When employees feel connected to the company’s mission and values, they are more likely to be engaged, committed, and passionate about their work.

Most companies have spent the energy to articulate its mission and values, print it in posters and display it in the reception lobby. Some might have reviewed its processes to align them, and consider cultural fit in the hiring process and training programs. All that is necessary but not sufficient to achieve cohesive behavior across the organization over time.

In this article, beyond the basics, we will explore management of symbols and company mythology through practical examples .

Leadership , Transparency and Trust

Regardless of style, culture can only be established if people in positions of power exercise leadership and create trust through consistent authentic behavior. A leader not only needs to be honest, they need to look honest and provide behavioral examples on how the organization faces challenge.

So, we argue, beyond doing what every company does, in order to establish a strong culture, leadership needs to provide the symbols and stories that create the company mythology. For culture to be reinforced beyond slogans and posters, there should be vivid symbols that constantly and organically support the culture with examples of values expressed in practice.

Example of Company Mythology

You might have heard this anecdote. When Apple was designing the original iPod, Steve Jobs was looking at one prototype and wanted it to be thinner. After engineers guaranteed that was not possible, Jobs tossed it inside a fish tank. As the shocked group watched their creation sinking into the water, air bubbles came out of the prototype. “There is empty space inside. Make it thinner”.

This might be an unusual action by a company leader. Exactly because of their unusual and memorable character, it become a powerful symbol of the culture and are repeated across the company (and in the case of Jobs at Apple, outside the company too) as a shared story, providing examples of how Apple employees should commit to the relentless pursuit of perfection in user experience and pay constant attention to detail. That is how culture survives its leader, through the company mythology.

In another popular example, Elon Musk sleeps under his desk next to the Tesla assembly line to exemplify his “hardcore” culture. That is probably not a practically necessary display, but it is a strong symbol of the culture he wants to implement.

Perhaps those are extreme examples, but any company leader must not only consistently act according to the company culture but also provide memorable stories that will be told beyond people who can directly observe those leadership behaviors.

Conclusion

Company culture is a powerful force that can either propel an organization to success or hinder its growth. To manage company culture, to keep it from diluting as you bring new people, or developing new desirable values, you need to do all things you know you need to do: hire with culture in mind, implementing training and mentoring programs, explicitly articulate your values and implement policies and practices aligned with them.

But as or perhaps more important, you need to collect stories (make them interesting and memorable by highlighting some of the aspects if you have too) and cultivate a mythology by repeated storytelling. That process has to be authentic, but can also benefit from a bit of deliberation. The leadership must provide the symbols, the validation points for that culture. Occasionally, leaders need to go against common sense (those are the stronger memorable symbols) to make a point that lets people know how important that is.

About the author

Culture has always been a topic of interest to me. At Cyclades, we arrived at a very successful and resilient culture and I don’t think any of us consciously knew what we were doing at the time. What I learned is that, as long as leadership live the culture, cares about the team, and provides the examples, the organization will follow. I occasionally engage as a corporate consultant to work both on leadership or technical projects.

From Corporate Stability to Startup Agility

The siren call of the startup world, with its promises of growth, and the potential to shape the future, has always tempted professionals stewing in static structures of large corporations. The transition from a corporate job to a startup is not merely a change of scenery but a paradigm shift in work culture, pace, and personal development. Because most of us have been conditioned to be quite conservative when it comes to career, more often that not, moving from corporate to a startup job it is not a deliberate choice, but a circumstance of life. This post explores the multiple aspects of this transition, delving into the motivations, challenges, and rewards that individuals encounter when they leave the familiar corporate landscape for the dynamic world of startups.

The Allure of Startups

The allure of startups varies among individuals. For some, the appeal lies in the opportunity to make a tangible impact. In a startup, every contribution, no matter how small, can significantly influence the trajectory of the company. This sense of ownership and agency is often lacking in larger organizations where individual efforts can feel like a drop in the ocean.

Others are drawn to the fast-paced, dynamic environment of startups. Unlike the bureaucratic and slow-moving corporate world, startups are characterized by rapid decision-making, agility, and a bias towards action. This environment fosters creativity, innovation, and a sense of urgency that can be exhilarating for those who thrive in such settings.

The potential for exponential growth, both for the company and the individual, is another significant attraction. While startups are inherently risky, the rewards for success can be substantial. Employees often receive equity in the company, which can translate into significant financial gains if the startup thrives. Moreover, the steep learning curve and diverse responsibilities in a startup can accelerate career growth and equip individuals with a wide range of skills.

The Challenges of Transitioning

One of the most significant adjustments is tolerance to risk. For most of us, financial risk is the dominant factor. Working for a large stable company usually comes with a reliable paycheck and benefits. Startups tend to pay less and offer limited benefits, and that could stop without notice if the company fails (that is always true, but sudden failure is a more probable occurrence with startups).

Another challenge is the increased ambiguity and uncertainty. Unlike established corporations with proven business models and predictable revenue streams, startups often operate in uncharted territory. This means that roles and responsibilities can be less clearly defined, and there may be a greater degree of experimentation and risk-taking. This can be exciting for some, but it can also be stressful for those who prefer a more structured and predictable work environment.

The pace of work in a startup can be a significant adjustment. Startups are often under pressure to achieve rapid growth and meet aggressive deadlines. This can lead to long hours, intense workloads, and a constant sense of urgency. For those accustomed to the more measured pace of corporate life, this can be overwhelming and lead to burnout if not managed effectively.

Making the decision

There is no objective scorecard or framework to help you decide. This is how I have thought to convince myself to make the move (or not) several times in my career…

• Losing my job is not the end of the world. I am confident I can go without income for a few months and can find work to make a living at any time if I have to (most people who can do it emotionally believe they can’t – make an attempt to be objective).
• I prefer working hard on something I believe in than cruising doing something that is not very consequential for a salary (most will say “yes”, but not follow with action – do you really?).
• Work is an important part of my identity, not only a way to make a living. Finding a sense of purpose in work is important to me (most will say “yes” but not follow with action – is it really?).

If you answered a confident “yes” to all three statements, you should consider the startup opportunity in front of you seriously (or embrace it if it was not your choice). There is nothing wrong with saying “no”, that is what the vast majority of people do and that is a good thing. There is good and meaningful work in large organizations., and people who work hard and well will find them.

Despite the challenges, the transition from a corporate job to a startup can be immensely rewarding. The opportunity to make a meaningful impact, the accelerated career growth, and the potential for financial gain are all significant benefits. Moreover, the dynamic and collaborative environment of startups can foster a sense of camaraderie and shared purpose that is often lacking in larger organizations.

Making the Transition Successful

To make a successful transition from a corporate job to a startup, individuals need to be adaptable, resilient, and open to new experiences. If the transition is a deliberate choice, you can look at these parameters for decision. If the transition is imposed on you, be aware of the differences and embrace them.

• Personal timing – There is no right or wrong time to make the transition as opportunities to join a promising startup can happen at any time. From an individual perspective, it is typically easier to work for an startup early in the career, or after having achieved some level of financial independence. It is always better to decide than have someone else decide it for you. True entrepreneurs don’t worry about timing, just go for it.
• Market timing – There is no right or wrong time to make the transition as successful companies are created every day independent of market conditions. From a probabilistic perspective, the best time to join a technology startup is when tight financial conditions are present (when only strong startups survive), in advance to a cycle of economic growth. As the market recovers, large companies have inertia in shifting gears, and startups have the opportunity to take the market lead. The least favorable time to make the transition is when you have no say and someone else decide it for you.
• Evaluating the specific opportunity – If you are going to make sacrifices and take risk, make sure you are doing it for something you believe in. You are going to invest your most precious resource (time) into it, so listen to their pitch as the investor you are. Ask and verify the company has a plan and is properly funded to execute the plan and come out on the other side as a sustainable and successful business. You can get the opinion of people who are used to assess startups. The earlier you join, the highest is the risk and potential for financial rewards.
• Get Advice and Context – Talk to peers and mentors about the decision. Find someone you know who has made the transition and check on their experiences (use this article as a conversation piece). Visit startups and get an insight on the work environment and culture. Understand and embrace the risks and rewards and make a deliberate decision to explore.

Conclusion

The transition from a corporate job to a startup is a significant decision with both challenges and rewards. While the allure of impact, growth, and innovation is strong, it’s important to be aware of the cultural differences, increased ambiguity, and faster pace of work that come with the territory. By embracing the challenges, building a strong network, and prioritizing self-care, individuals can successfully navigate this transition and thrive in the dynamic and rewarding world of startups.

Call to Action

If you are at 50%, go for it! Even if you decision is to stay safe and stable, maintain the relationships and stay market-aware of new opportunities. Both the market and your life evolve over time and having the option to do something different often increases the appreciation you have for where you are today. Continue to nurture the opportunity to do make the jump in the future.

About the author

Circumstances and decisions compelled me to make multiple corporate-startup transitions in my career. While I tend to be conservative most of the time, I find that embracing risk is necessary occasionally for growth to the next and next-next level. There are certain things that cannot be learned within the bureaucracy of the corporate hierarchy. I occasionally engage as a career coach and share experiences to inspire and help people to make the best decision for themselves.

Marcio Saito

Do I need a vision?

My 30+ year career was shaped by rapid technological evolution and seemingly random opportunities. While “successful” people will share and then prescribe their path to others, the milestones and transitions in my trajectory were dictated as much by external factors and luck as they were by my decisions and foresight. Consistency and integrity are more important than vision when it comes to career development.

Don’t have a vision on where you want to be at the end of your work career? Don’t bother. When it comes to career, both successful and unsuccessful people have the same high-level goals (money, respect, purpose). What matters is what you do, not what you dream. Let’s figure this out together.

The Pressure of the ‘Perfect’ Path

Society pushes the myth of a neat, linear life plan: graduate from college, get the job, and climb to success. But the truth is, our twenties are about exploration, growth, and even some healthy confusion. Early career choices are stepping stones, not an unbreakable vow. The ‘perfect path’ is the one you create along the way.

The world of work is vast, and the sheer number of career possibilities can be overwhelming. It’s normal to feel paralyzed by the fear of choosing wrong. Every experience teaches valuable lessons.

Well-meaning advice from friends, family and mentors can feel overwhelming and is often based on experiences of another era. While their input is valuable, it’s essential to distinguish between what’s right for them and what’s right for you.

Follow your Passion – or not

Celebrity advice to “follow your passion” does not take into account the luck that was part of their success. While talent and dedication matter, as an example, for every NBA passion-for-basketball success story, thousands of hopefuls fail to achieve a professional career in sports. Get inspiration from your heroes, but find your own path instead of following someone else’s footsteps.

Choosing a line of work should consider the future, not today’s job market trends. Jobs in high demand now might not be it when you are actually building a career 10 years from now, particularly in Technology jobs. The Internet in the 2000 and Large Language Models in 2025 are examples of broad nascent technologies that disrupt and shape the types of jobs available.

Ideally, find work that both energizes you and aligns with in-demand skills. Expect your career path to solidify over time, but be ready to adapt early as technology reshapes the job market. Work is essential for a livelihood, but finding meaning and passion in your profession enriches your life.

So, What Can You Do?

Choosing an early career path isn’t about getting it perfect the first time, it’s about starting on your journey of discovery. Here are some strategies to help, and some of my personal experience:

• Explore with curiosity: Limit the impact of external pressure, try different things. Take classes on subjects that intrigue you, volunteer, intern, or pick up side gigs. The more you dip your toes, the clearer your likes and dislikes become. In every role I took in my career, besides delivering on my work, I have strived to learn about the industry, functional area and technology far beyond what the job required.
• Introspection over Perfection: Pay attention to what sparks your interest. While competition might be an indication of where the money is and being influenced by your peers is part of the game, don’t be afraid of being different. I was lucky picking a college major (Electrical Engineering) based on competition, but when I started working on Computer Networking, I did so because I was interested, not because I knew the Internet was going to transform our lives.
• Seek Multiple Mentors: Don’t just rely on one person’s perspective. Talk to people in different fields, job shadow, and get a feel for the day-to-day realities of different careers. Most people would love to help, don’t be afraid to ask for advice. In 2004, as I pursued my first CTO role, I sent a cold email to Avie Tevanian (at the time, CTO at Apple) and he agreed to meet for breakfast for a career talk that had a profound impact on my thinking and career.
• Reframe ‘Failure’: False starts are valuable lessons. Building a career takes experimentation and course corrections to find what fits. Resilience is your superpower – embrace those ‘detours’ as part of the journey. Look at my LinkedIn profile. While I can tell you a compelling story about going from humble beginnings in Brazil to having an impactful role in the industry to leading a Technology organization at Google, the sequence of roles is far from linear.
• Don’t Compare Your Timeline: Your friend is on their second promotion while you’re still feeling lost? Everyone has their own timeline. Obsessing over others’ achievements leads to misery. Focus on your process, not your relative position in some imaginary race. After arriving to California as a starving entrepreneur, I remember being mocked by friends in boring corporate roles about the insecurity of my work. Time has shown that an unstable beginning can result in more satisfying and exciting journeys.
• Optimize for learning, not money – Compensation grows exponentially along a successful career (e.g. if you learn and grow early and take important roles later, your compensation at peak will be 10x – 100x your first year out of college), so you get more money overall by learning earlier and growing into a long-term successful career.

Marcio’s Views on Career Development

Success is the result of talent, dedication and preparation. To me, the timeless essence of career success involves knowing more than just what is necessary, being attentive to recognize opportunity when it strikes, being decisive and taking bold action to seize them, nurture relationships and act with empathy, generosity, optimism, and integrity.

Dedication doesn’t necessarily mean working long hours or on weekends. Consistency is more important than “hard work”. The notion of “hybrid” work recently made the concept of multitasking between attending meetings, doing laundry, and cooking lunch popular, but that is not the recipe for learning, productivity and growth. Regardless of where you are, when working, do it with focus and concentration.

Some level of specialized knowledge is important early in the career (and college is one of the places you can acquire it). Later in life, your value as a professional is in connecting dots, combining multiple skills and transposing experience from one area to another. Do not put yourself in a limiting box. Specialization value fades with time. For example, data analysis is not very valuable if you cannot use it to inspire and move others towards action. Later in life, skills like storytelling, communication and thought leadership become important.

Finally, the people you work with early on (particularly your manager) have a profound impact on your career. Find roles that are generous with learning experiences and work with people you admire. If you find yourself complaining about the work environment too often, stop, take responsibility and do something about it.

Call to Action

If you find this article thought-provoking and useful, please share with your friends, mentors, children, parents and use it to have a conversation. It takes a village to build a successful career and most people are enthusiastic about sharing their ideas on what you should do (listen, filter, take what is useful). This is the link to share.

About the author

Marcio dedicates a portion of his time sharing experience, inspiration, and advice with the younger generation of innovators and thought-leaders. Schedule a conversation here. The coaching fee are waived for students and early-career professionals. Sessions can be specific (job interview preparation, thought leadership, etc.) or general career advice.